--- title: Politics and Market Returns author: Brandon Grundy, CFP® --- # Politics and Market Returns 03 Nov, 2026 With this being Election Day, I wanted to share some links to interactive maps where you can view predictions and, eventually, election results. You may already have a resource for this but just in case not, I like 270towin this season. The links below are to the House and Senate pages, but the site lets you drill down further as well. [https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/qy1NmNq](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/qy1NmNq) [https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/qEbN0e](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/qEbN0e) We’ve talked about this during past election cycles, but I think it’s good to remind ourselves there’s no clear evidence proving that one political party is better for markets over time. Historically, there have been too many variables involved to pin market performance on any one presidential administration or party’s control of Congress. Lots of people try to answer this question, but inherent ambiguity can lead to wide variations in how the data is analyzed. What ends up mattering more, or at least enough to muddy the analytical waters, is the cyclical nature of the economy and markets, and how a person or party’s control overlaps with that. Did an incoming president or a party’s new control of Congress inherit a rough economy, a bear market, or recession early in their term? Or did they take office with the economy and markets on the upswing that inevitably follows a recession? In other words, timing is everything and politicians often seem to ride a wave they had little direct responsibility for creating, both in a positive and negative sense. They can certainly mess things up regardless of what they inherited, but it’s all far too complicated to get a definitive answer that an investor could trade on. Here’s a graphic related to this topic from my research partners at Bespoke Investment Group. ![Politics and Market Returns](https://ridgeviewfp.com/images/Politics%20and%20Market%20Returns.png) Anyway, I mention this because whoever ends up controlling Congress won’t (or at least shouldn’t) change our overall approach to investing. While essentially nobody is calling for a recession at this point, we still have inflation and interest rates to worry about, war and global instability, plus the AI growth story, and none of that fog is clearing up anytime soon. And a divided government usually means legislative gridlock. We want to be appropriately diversified, plan ahead for cash needs, and ensure everything is in our portfolio for a reason. That’s all easier said than done, of course. So, maybe make some slight adjustments if your outlook and portfolio warrants it, but otherwise stick to your plan. Have questions? Ask us. We can help. - [General Information](https://ridgeviewfp.com/index.php?option=com_tags&view=tag&id[0]=3:general-information), [Investing & Markets](https://ridgeviewfp.com/index.php?option=com_tags&view=tag&id[0]=6:investing) ![](https://ridgeviewfp.com/media/yootheme/cache/c2/brandon_grundy-c28cb604.jpg) Brandon Grundy, CFP® Founder and Principal of Ridgeview Financial Planning ## Popular Articles [See all](https://ridgeviewfp.com/index.php?Itemid=117) ### [When Good News is Bad News](https://ridgeviewfp.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=57:when-good-news-is-bad-news&catid=8) 14 January 2025 Before beginning I have to take a moment to comment on the fires raging in SoCa… [Read more](https://ridgeviewfp.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=57:when-good-news-is-bad-news&catid=8) ### [Stashing Cash](https://ridgeviewfp.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=65:stashing-cash&catid=8) 22 October 2023 Over the past several weeks we covered a handful of year-end considerations wit… [Read more](https://ridgeviewfp.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=65:stashing-cash&catid=8) ### [Falling Consumer Sentiment](https://ridgeviewfp.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=51:falling-consumer-sentiment&catid=8) 25 February 2025 Good morning. I hope your week is going well. Before we get started I wanted to… [Read more](https://ridgeviewfp.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=51:falling-consumer-sentiment&catid=8)