The fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024 ended with a depressing slump but otherwise continued what had been a strong year for US stocks. Foreign stocks perked up occasionally, as did US bonds, but our domestic stock market was the clear standout in terms of generating performance. The expanding AI industry, Fed policy, and inflation once again played important roles during the quarter and year while election outcomes in November reset expectations. Here’s a roundup of how…

Counting today we have ten market days left in the year – it’s crunch time. This calendar compression isn’t new but is still hard to get comfortable with. I’m spending these last days double checking that RMDs have been taken on schedule, Roth conversions and other transfers are completed, portfolios are properly balanced, and that appropriate losses get harvested for tax purposes. There’s been less of the latter this year, fortunately. Stocks have done well and b…

“What’s past is prologue”, according to Shakespeare. Contrast that with how past performance isn’t a guarantee of future results, according to our common industry disclosure, and you’d be correct in wondering why we spend so much time talking about history. I mean, are we trusting it as a guide for the future or not? I’ve always liked the middle ground quote from our American Shakespeare, Mark Twain, about how “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”…

Good morning everyone. I hope you had an enjoyable Thanksgiving last week. For me, it was a good time to add some calories that I’d soon be burning off. While I won’t bore you with all the details, I spent most of this past weekend paddling a stand-up paddleboard in 3.3-mile loops within a water park in Sarasota FL. The race is called Last Paddler Standing. Sounds fun, right? The main event went up to 48 hours of continuous one-hour loops. A “super loop” of about…

I don’t know about you but I’m finding myself to be more of a traditionalist these days. I like my holiday season evenly distributed with each holiday given it’s due. So I balk when Christmas decorations start popping up before Halloween and Thanksgiving sort of floats in between. And when Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals start showing up in my inbox weeks ahead of schedule, it throws me off. If these are early deals, shouldn’t I just wait for even better prices…

In last week’s note I mentioned how many, if not most, investors are in wait-and-see mode when it comes to the new administration’s impact on the economy and markets. I also mentioned how investors generally favor traditional Republican ideals of lower taxes and less regulation. That said, nobody likes uncertainty. Along these lines, the following is a great summary from JPMorgan on the ongoing reassessment happening in the markets. We’ve discussed this in recent…