There are a variety of things percolating this morning. I’ll share some below, although there’s no clear throughline. The Federal Reserve meets again this week for another decision on its short-term interest rate benchmark. As I type there’s a 99% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction. Then there’s a 94% chance of another quarter-point reduction at the Fed’s last 2025 meeting in December. Odds of further reductions even out quickly into the new year, but three…

I've written before about being selective in the voices I pay attention to when it comes to the economy, markets, and so forth. These days we need beacons of rationality in what can otherwise be a sea of disfunction. Anyway, two of these are Bespoke Investment Group and certain analysis and information from JPMorgan. Bespoke is a subscription service I've been using for years that provides all manner of analysis but really shines when providing broader context. JPM…

Before I start this week's post, as of this writing there are more than 100 confirmed fatalities from flooding on the Guadalupe River in Texas over the holiday weekend. Dozens are still missing. The news reports and images are horrific, although stories of selfless acts and heroism are bright spots amid tragedy. Our hearts and prayers go out to the families who lost loved ones during this event. Okay, on to this week's post. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is now law…

What a few months it has been! The first quarter of 2025 ended in a stock market slump with US investors feeling quite anxious. The second quarter (Q2) started with an absolute jolt to the system – markets fell sharply, recovered, fell again, and then recovered to new highs all in a span of about three months. What follows is a brief breakdown of what happened and what to make of it. Here's a summary of how major market indexes performed during the quarter and yea…

This week let’s look at inflation psychology. Even though the Consumer Price Index has improved almost to normal levels since 2022 when inflation spiked, consumers still report being overwhelmed by it. This makes sense when we consider egg prices, for example, which are about twice as expensive as a year ago. And people are rightfully concerned about looming tariff-related inflation. Still, prices are lower for most of what we buy so we shouldn’t be as concerned ab…

What are we to make of recent market swings? Stocks fall precipitously, in some ways faster than ever. Then stocks rally in historic fashion. We’re not in the clear yet but it’s great to see prices rise. One thing is certain amid the variety of chaotic news and events shaping our markets lately: you shouldn’t try to trade the headlines. Instead, you should follow the plan you (ideally) already have in place. You’ve heard me say things like this at least a hundred…