This week let’s look at inflation psychology. Even though the Consumer Price Index has improved almost to normal levels since 2022 when inflation spiked, consumers still report being overwhelmed by it. This makes sense when we consider egg prices, for example, which are about twice as expensive as a year ago. And people are rightfully concerned about looming tariff-related inflation. Still, prices are lower for most of what we buy so we shouldn’t be as concerned ab…

What are we to make of recent market swings? Stocks fall precipitously, in some ways faster than ever. Then stocks rally in historic fashion. We’re not in the clear yet but it’s great to see prices rise. One thing is certain amid the variety of chaotic news and events shaping our markets lately: you shouldn’t try to trade the headlines. Instead, you should follow the plan you (ideally) already have in place. You’ve heard me say things like this at least a hundred…

The first quarter (Q1) of 2025 began well but ended in a confused slump driven primarily by political anxiety. This uncertainty fed into consumer and investor confidence that declined throughout the quarter and caused a correction in major stock market indexes like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Bonds perked up as investors rushed to safety which helped buoy performance for balanced portfolios. That lift was good to see after a few crushing years for bond investors, b…

There’s been a lot going on over the past month or two. So much that it seems like a part-time job keeping up with it all. I’m guessing you may feel the same way. Some are excited and energized by the variety of news while others are unsettled, and that’s putting it mildly. Much of the news isn’t directly related to the markets but the cumulative weight of it impacts investor mood and we’ve been seeing this play out in stock and bond prices. As of last Thursday th…

It's been a wild several weeks in the markets and elsewhere. News flow has been fast and furious and doesn't seem to be slowing anytime soon. This impacts stock and bond prices, as you're no doubt aware, with major stock indexes down year-to-date, while bonds have picked up a little slack. Investor mood has gotten pretty dark. The "R word" is being discussed again and if the economy does dip its toe into the red maybe it goes down as the first "r" caused by everyon…

Good morning. I hope your week is going well. Before we get started I wanted to let you know that I’ll be skipping next week’s post as I’ll be out of the office on Monday and that’s when I usually write these. The stock market dipped a bit last week in part due to news about falling consumer sentiment. I wanted to spend a few minutes looking at this because while sentiment news can move markets in the short-term, it also has broader implications for the economy an…