Good morning. There’s news on this Veterans Day that the government shutdown could be coming to an end. Let’s be hopeful because, among other reasons, as of last week we’ve blown past the record for the longest shutdown in our history. This holiday reminds us that we helped end WWI, so we ought to be able to run a government. Besides that, the day also calls us to remember those who served in the armed forces. Thank you for your service.  On to this week's post…

The Social Security Administration has announced a 2.8% cost of living adjustment (COLA) for benefits beginning in January 2026. This is up from the 2.5% increase for 2025 but lower than the longer-term average of 3.1%. This 2.8% COLA will bring the average monthly Social Security benefit to $2,071 for an individual and $3,208 for a couple. SSA’s COLA is based on a particular version of the consumer price index, CPI-W, generated by the US Bureau of Labor Statisti…

There are a variety of things percolating this morning. I’ll share some below, although there’s no clear throughline. The Federal Reserve meets again this week for another decision on its short-term interest rate benchmark. As I type there’s a 99% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction. Then there’s a 94% chance of another quarter-point reduction at the Fed’s last 2025 meeting in December. Odds of further reductions even out quickly into the new year, but three…

I've written before about being selective in the voices I pay attention to when it comes to the economy, markets, and so forth. These days we need beacons of rationality in what can otherwise be a sea of disfunction. Anyway, two of these are Bespoke Investment Group and certain analysis and information from JPMorgan. Bespoke is a subscription service I've been using for years that provides all manner of analysis but really shines when providing broader context. JPM…

Before I start this week's post, as of this writing there are more than 100 confirmed fatalities from flooding on the Guadalupe River in Texas over the holiday weekend. Dozens are still missing. The news reports and images are horrific, although stories of selfless acts and heroism are bright spots amid tragedy. Our hearts and prayers go out to the families who lost loved ones during this event. Okay, on to this week's post. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is now law…

What a few months it has been! The first quarter of 2025 ended in a stock market slump with US investors feeling quite anxious. The second quarter (Q2) started with an absolute jolt to the system – markets fell sharply, recovered, fell again, and then recovered to new highs all in a span of about three months. What follows is a brief breakdown of what happened and what to make of it. Here's a summary of how major market indexes performed during the quarter and yea…